Prediction Markets

A large crowd sits under trees in a park watching a football match on a big outdoor screen.

A prediction market is an exchange where people trade contracts on the outcome of a future event, such as an election, a match or an economic release. Each contract pays a fixed amount if the event happens and nothing if it does not, so its price reads directly as the market's implied probability. A share trading at 0.30 says the market prices the outcome at about 30 per cent.

Filings: 2
Latest: 20 Oct 2026

The white marble columns of the US Supreme Court building stand under a cloudy sky beside a flagpole.

Are Prediction Markets Gambling? CFTC Rules vs State Law

The CFTC decides if an event contract is gaming under Rule 40.11; the Third Circuit's 2-1 Kalshi ruling shows how far that shields platforms from state law.By Polycasino Sector Sheet20 Oct 2026

16Oct 2026World Cup Prediction Markets: Prices, Rules and SettlementHow World Cup contracts on Polymarket price, why a wide spread swaps the midpoint for the last trade, and how a $750 bond and 50/50 outcome settle disputes.Polycasino Sector Sheet

How do prediction markets work?

Most venues run an order book: traders post bids and asks for YES and NO shares, and a trade happens when two orders meet. The displayed price is usually the midpoint of the best bid and ask, or the last trade when the spread is wide, so on a thin market the headline number can say more about one trade than about the crowd. Volume, open interest and spread are the figures that tell you how much weight a price can carry. Our read on World Cup prediction markets shows how outright, group and match contracts price and why a wide spread changes what the displayed probability means.

How does a prediction market settle?

Every contract has written rules: the question, the source that decides it and the deadline. On a regulated exchange the venue settles against the named source. On crypto venues such as Polymarket, results are proposed through an oracle: a proposer posts a bond, a challenge window follows, and a disputed result goes to a vote of the oracle's token holders. Edge cases matter. Whether extra time counts in a football contract, or which body's count decides an election, is set by the rules, not by the headline.

Are prediction markets gambling?

That depends on the law that applies, not on the product's name. In the United States, exchanges registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission list event contracts under federal commodities law, and the CFTC's rules let it bar contracts involving gaming and certain other activities. Several states argue that sports and election contracts are gambling under state law, and courts are still settling where the line falls. Our read on whether prediction markets are gambling sets out the legal test and the rulings that apply it.

What about political betting?

Election and policy contracts are the category that put prediction markets in the news, and they follow the same mechanics as any other contract: a price, a resolution source and a deadline. The sheet reads them the same way, as a market with measurable volume and liquidity, not as a forecast to follow.

How Polycasino covers prediction markets

Filings in this sector start from the venues' own market rules and dated dashboards, and every figure is tied to its source. Start with the World Cup read for mechanics, then the legal read.